Since I have been asked on numerous occasions the last two days, I thought I would share my opinion on the Presidential election and what we might expect.
First, let me start by stating these are my views alone. Also, this is our firms 8th presidential election as an organization. It has certainly reminded me how some of the same questions arise when a new party takes office.
This election was unique but to some extent they all are. What made this one truly different was the media’s perspective and how they continually announced Trump’s political demise. However, the media also predicted a catastrophic fall yesterday in the U.S. markets and so far, those predictions of doom and gloom are also wrong.
The media and Wall Street crave predictability and President-elect Trump is largely a wild card. Like it or not, Trump will be inaugurated in January so let’s evaluate what might happen.
President Trump – first hundred days
In a speech that was delivered this month, he stated his first 100 days in office will include a range of policy issues along with some more personal items. He again renewed his pledge to build a border wall, to undo President Obama's executive orders on immigration and, potentially to withdraw from NAFTA.
On foreign policy, he has advocated an "America First" approach. President-elect Trump stated he feels other countries should pay more for their protection. That approach has understandably alarmed overseas leaders by calling into question our alliance with NATO.
A Republican House and Senate has certainly improved his chances of enacting major legislation. It is my belief however, that difficulties will occur. Keep in mind how divisive this race became from within his own party. Many lawmakers were adamant that he should drop out in October. Some of those people later ‘re-endorsed’ him and we have already witnessed rallying around the victor but, that may not be enough to heal the deep wounds he suffered.
When it comes to policy, his first order of business will likely entail reversing many of President Obama's executive orders. It is now clear that he will have plenty of support from the House and Senate to achieve this. After that, what he can accomplish and at what pace, becomes very unclear.
In the coming weeks, you will hear plenty of banter concerning; who will be nominated for the Supreme Court, social issues such as his vision on immigration, deportation, the wall etc., etc... I think we can all agree that there is no simple answer on immigration or foreign policy. Therefore, it may be months or even years before have any clear direction.
In closing, I am confident that no matter what happens during the remainder of this year and into the next, there will be opportunities for investors. Those opportunities may be in certain markets or sectors, industries or regions, and they may have risks that you need to understand before deciding to invest, but they will exist. At Lopez Wealth Management, we understand that staying true to our investment philosophy allows us to block out the day to day noise so that we can remain focused on finding those opportunities for our clients.